Just three days ago, we reported that monsoon flooding was beginning to intensify across India as heavy rainfall spread into several states. Since then, the situation has escalated rapidly. A well-marked low-pressure system that formed over the northwestern Bay of Bengal has strengthened the southwest monsoon, producing widespread heavy rainfall, flash floods and landslides from western India to Bangladesh.
So, why has India’s monsoon suddenly become so active?
The answer lies in the development of the Bay of Bengal low-pressure system, one of the primary drivers of heavy monsoon rainfall across the Indian subcontinent. As the system moved inland, it intensified the southwest monsoon by strengthening low-level southwesterly winds that transported deep tropical moisture from the Bay of Bengal into eastern, central and western India.
The atmosphere then received an additional boost from India’s geography. As the warm, moisture-rich air encountered the Western Ghats and the Himalayan foothills, it was forced upward in a process known as orographic lifting. Rising air cooled and condensed into persistent bands of moderate to heavy rainfall. Rather than a single burst of extreme precipitation, many regions experienced several consecutive days of rain, allowing soils to become saturated and dramatically increasing the risk of flash floods and landslides.
In a single night, 8 Rohingya refugees lost their lives due to heavy rain and landslides in the world’s largest refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh #Rohingya#Refugees#Monsoon#RefugeeCamp
— CFW Rohim Ullah (@CFWRohimUllah) July 6, 2026
Video: @CFWRohimUllah pic.twitter.com/3CXhX3KmlC
The active monsoon has affected much of the country, with Maharashtra among the hardest-hit states. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a Red Alert for Mumbai, Thane and Raigad, forecasting heavy to very heavy rainfall of 115.6 to 204.4 mm (4.6 to 8.0 inches) in 24 hours. Meteorologists also warned that localized cloudburst-like rainfall could develop over parts of Nashik district, where exceptionally intense rainfall rates may rapidly overwhelm drainage systems.
The persistent downpours inundated roads across Mumbai, disrupted rail and air transportation and forced temporary closures of sections of the Mumbai-Pune Expressway after flooding and landslides damaged infrastructure. More than 40 Western Railway services were affected by waterlogging and slope failures, while several inbound flights were diverted because of poor weather. High tide conditions along the Mumbai coastline further reduced the city’s ability to drain floodwaters, worsening urban flooding.
مشاهد من فاساي إيست في ولاية ماهاراشترا الهندية، حيث تسببت الأمطار الغزيرة والرياح العاتية في غمر الشوارع بمياه الفيضانات، وسط استمرار الأحوال الجوية العنيفة. 🇮🇳🚨#India #Maharashtra #Vasai #Flood #HeavyRain #Monsoon pic.twitter.com/OUtLWMcHmW
— طقس_العالم ⚡️ (@Arab_Storms) July 7, 2026
Farther north, the same moisture plume has interacted with the Himalayan terrain to generate repeated episodes of heavy rainfall. In Himachal Pradesh, IMD observations recorded 97 mm (3.8 inches) of rainfall in Jogindernagar and 74.8 mm (2.9 inches) in Kangra over a 24-hour period, prompting Orange Alerts for additional heavy to very heavy rainfall. In neighboring Jammu and Kashmir, flash floods carried mud, rocks and debris onto the Doda-Kishtwar Highway, disrupting transportation and highlighting the elevated landslide risk across steep mountain terrain.
The same weather pattern has extended into neighboring Bangladesh. Continuous rainfall over the Cox’s Bazar region saturated the steep, deforested hillsides surrounding the Rohingya refugee camps, where multiple landslides occurred after days of uninterrupted precipitation. Authorities relocated around 1,000 residents from the most vulnerable slopes as additional rainfall remained in the forecast.
Forecasts indicate that the Bay of Bengal system will keep the southwest monsoon in an active phase for several more days. Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected across central and western India, the Himalayan foothills and Bangladesh, maintaining an elevated threat of flooding, flash floods and landslides as already saturated soils struggle to absorb more rainfall.
