The European Storm Forecast Experiment (ESTOFEX) has issued a Level 3 storm warning—the highest on its scale—for parts of Russia from 09:00 UTC on June 9 to 06:00 UTC on June 10, 2025. The alert warns of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds associated with severe thunderstorms.
According to ESTOFEX, a deepening frontal wave is moving through the region, with elevated storms already developing north of a lifting warm front. As the system progresses, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase along both the warm and cold fronts.
In the Level 3 zone, atmospheric conditions are highly favorable for dangerous convective storms. Instability near the surface, along with rapidly shifting wind patterns aloft, creates an environment conducive to supercells—rotating thunderstorms capable of producing strong tornadoes and very large hail.
Farther south, a well-mixed boundary layer may support the development of a fast-moving linear storm system, bringing widespread damaging wind gusts. The combination of these threats—tornadoes, destructive winds, and giant hail—meets ESTOFEX’s criteria for a Level 3 alert.
Surrounding Areas Under Lower-Level Alerts
- Level 2: Issued for Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania. In Romania, mountainous terrain is expected to spark storms capable of producing large hail, isolated strong wind gusts, and heavy rain.
- Level 1: Issued for Georgia, where storms descending from the Caucasus Mountains may lead to isolated large hail events.
- Level 1: Also in effect for eastern Spain, where conditions suggest a conditional risk for severe storms with large hail and damaging winds, though storm initiation remains uncertain.
Understanding ESTOFEX Threat Levels
ESTOFEX threat levels represent the statistical probability of severe weather occurring within a 40 km (25 mi) radius of a point, based on historical verification using reports from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). These probabilistic forecasts help assess the risk of damaging convective storms across Europe.
