The cold front will bring a noticeable change in the weather, replacing clear skies with scattered thunderstorms as it moves south across the state. The first strong storms developed over the Texas Panhandle before the system began advancing toward San Antonio and Southeast Texas.
Despite the increase in clouds and rain, the front will offer little lasting relief from the heat. The strongest storms may instead produce damaging wind gusts, hail, frequent lightning and localized flooding.
Amarillo, Vega, Hereford, Claude, Clarendon and Wellington were placed under a Level 1 out of 5 severe-weather risk from Friday afternoon into early Saturday.
Any storm that became sufficiently organized could produce hail and wind gusts reaching 70 mph, or 113 km/h. A brief tornado was also possible, although the overall probability remained very low.
The exact location of the strongest activity depended on where the boundary settled and how surface winds shifted.
Some forecast scenarios kept most storms south of Interstate 40, concentrating the risk over southern Randall and Deaf Smith counties. Other models showed thunderstorms forming farther north, potentially bringing heavy rain directly across Amarillo.
Additional storms moving out of the higher terrain of New Mexico could also enter the southwestern Panhandle.
FIRST ALERT WEATHER – A Tornado warning is in effect until 7/31 8:15PM for the following counties: Dent, Shannon, Texas. Large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes possible in the highlighted area. Seek sturdy shelter immediately. Go to the lowest level and stay away from windows pic.twitter.com/pvHAFhEfu2
— KY3 First Alert Weather (@KY3StormTeam) August 1, 2026
The front is expected to reach the Texas Hill Country and San Antonio area on Saturday afternoon.
Storms may initially develop near Fredericksburg and other parts of the Hill Country before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor. Rain chances around San Antonio are expected to increase near 3 p.m. and continue into Saturday evening.
The National Weather Service estimates a 20% to 40% chance of rain, meaning coverage will remain scattered. Some neighborhoods may receive an intense downpour, while nearby locations remain dry.
The boundary will create a zone of convergence, where winds meet and force hot, humid air upward. Combined with strong daytime heating, this lift may allow thunderstorms to form rapidly along or just ahead of the front.
Most of South Central Texas is expected to receive less than 25 millimeters, or 1 inch, of rain.
However, high atmospheric moisture could support much heavier totals beneath individual thunderstorms. Isolated areas may receive more than 76 millimeters, or 3 inches, within a short period.
Such rainfall rates could overwhelm drainage systems and flood roads, underpasses, creeks and other low-lying areas around San Antonio.
The front is expected to continue moving rather than stall over the region, which should limit the risk of widespread flash flooding. Even so, a slow-moving storm or repeated development over the same location could create dangerous local conditions.
Cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts approaching 80 km/h, or 50 mph, will also be possible.
Storms spread into Southeast Texas
By late Saturday, the weak boundary is expected to move into Southeast Texas, where it will interact with warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may form during the late afternoon and evening, when surface temperatures and atmospheric instability are at their highest.
Most storms should remain below severe limits, but an isolated stronger cell could produce a damaging wind gust, frequent lightning and a brief period of torrential rain.
Because storms will remain scattered, impacts may vary considerably over short distances.
Despite being described as a cold front, the boundary will not bring cooler autumn-like weather.
San Antonio could reach between 99°F to 101°F , or 37°C and 38°C, before storms form. Humidity may make conditions feel even hotter during the early afternoon.
Clouds and rain-cooled air could briefly lower temperatures beneath individual storms, but most of the state will remain hot.
Slightly drier air behind the front may reduce humidity on Sunday, although afternoon highs could still approach 100°F (38°C), across South Central Texas.
Southerly winds are then expected to return early next week, gradually pulling Gulf moisture back into the region.
For Texas, the front will provide a short-lived increase in storm activity rather than a true break from summer heat. The greatest risks will be hail and strong winds in the Panhandle, localized flooding near San Antonio and isolated damaging gusts in Southeast Texas.
