A rare and potentially catastrophic flash flood event is unfolding across southern Texas, where repeated rounds of thunderstorms are producing torrential rainfall over the same areas. The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center has placed parts of the state under a High Risk (Level 4 of 4) for excessive rainfall, its highest flood outlook.
That designation is exceptionally uncommon. It is issued on fewer than 4% of days each year, yet these events account for more than 80% of all flood-related damage across the United States.
The greatest threat covers the western Hill Country, the Edwards Plateau, the Rio Grande Valley and parts of south-central Texas, including Uvalde and Medina counties. San Antonio and Austin remain under a Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4), while Flood Watches extend from the Big Bend region to Waco through Thursday.
So why is the flood risk so extreme?
The answer lies in an unusually stagnant weather pattern. A deep plume of tropical moisture has settled over Texas while weak steering winds are preventing thunderstorms from moving away. Instead, new storms continue developing over the same locations, a phenomenon meteorologists call “training.”
Imagine train cars passing over the same section of track. One storm follows another, allowing rainfall totals to climb rapidly over just a few hours.
That has already happened across parts of southern Texas.
Many locations picked up between 150 and 300 mm (6 to 12 inches) of rain overnight into Tuesday, with additional rainfall expected through Thursday. Widespread totals of 50 to 125 mm (2 to 5 inches) are forecast, while isolated communities in the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains could receive another 250 to 380 mm (10 to 15 inches). In a few locations, storm-total rainfall may exceed 600 mm (24 inches).
The flooding is already causing major problems.
Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect across much of the Texas Hill Country, meaning dangerous flooding is either occurring or expected imminently. Roads have disappeared beneath fast-moving water, vehicles have become stranded, and emergency crews have carried out numerous water rescues.
In Uvalde County, Texas Game Wardens released dramatic footage showing a vehicle swept away by floodwaters moments after its occupants had been rescued. Similar rescues have been reported in Sabinal and Hondo, while widespread flooding affected D’Hanis. In Kerrville, police urged residents not to drive around barricades after multiple vehicles became trapped in floodwaters.
The threat is especially concerning because many of these same communities lie along the Guadalupe River, where catastrophic flooding in July 2025 claimed more than 130 lives. Since then, authorities have installed additional river gauges, flood monitoring systems and warning infrastructure to improve early detection as water levels rise.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott has activated emergency resources and issued a disaster declaration covering 59 counties, allowing additional rescue personnel and equipment to be deployed as the event continues.
Forecasters expect the dangerous flood threat to persist into Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward. Even after the rain begins to ease, rivers and streams will continue rising, meaning flooding may continue well beyond the end of the storms.
For anyone in the affected region, officials continue to stress one simple message: never attempt to drive through floodwaters. Most flash flood fatalities occur in vehicles, which is why emergency managers continue repeating the same advice: Turn Around, Don’t Drown.
