Less than two weeks after one of the most significant thunderstorm outbreaks in recent Benelux history, forecast guidance suggests conditions may once again become favorable for severe thunderstorms across the Netherlands and Belgium later this month.
While confidence remains low regarding the exact timing, atmospheric patterns expected to develop during the second half of July increasingly support the return of hot, humid air followed by the potential for powerful thunderstorms.
Er zijn intussen meerdere stevige onweersbuien ontstaan. Deze buien pakken lokaal zwaar uit en kunnen gepaard gaan met hagel, zware windstoten en veel regen in korte tijd. De buien trekken geleidelijk richting het noordoosten. In het hele land is code oranje actief vanwege de… pic.twitter.com/fcdHIyITle
— Luca | Weermeter (@Luca_Hoogeveen) June 27, 2026
The threat comes shortly after an extraordinary severe weather event affected the Benelux region on June 27-28.
As the European heat dome fractured along a sharp frontal boundary, enormous amounts of atmospheric energy were released across the region. Around midday on June 27, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) upgraded its severe thunderstorm warning from Code Yellow to Code Orange, warning that storms could produce very large hail, destructive wind gusts, torrential rainfall and even tornadoes. Dutch weather expert Wouter van Bernebeek described the setup as one that “could become exceptional.”
The overnight storm system proved exactly that.
The Netherlands recorded 188,307 lightning strikes in just 24 hours, setting a new national daily record. A suspected EF-2 tornado caused significant damage in eastern Groningen, while floodwaters inundated a wedding venue in Twente after a nearby riverbank burst during the ceremony. A 25-year-old woman was killed near Coevorden when a tree fell onto her car. Emergency services became overwhelmed by damage reports, prompting authorities in the Midden- and West-Brabant region to activate an additional emergency control room.
In Belgium, the same storm complex swept rapidly from south to north overnight, bringing widespread heavy rainfall, intense lightning and damaging wind gusts.
Forecast models indicate that high pressure will rebuild over Central Europe during the second half of July, allowing increasingly warm and humid air to spread across the Netherlands and Belgium.
⚡️ Geluid aan! Deze blikseminslag werd in de nacht van zaterdag op zondag vastgelegd in mijn eigen dorp Mook, Limburg. Zulke knallen worden veroorzaakt door krachtige, positief geladen blikseminslagen… #onweer
— Wouter van Bernebeek (@StormchaserNL) June 29, 2026
Video: Leon op de Weegh pic.twitter.com/Y6nMlMfrVB
Daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 20s Celsius (low to mid 80s Fahrenheit), with many inland areas potentially exceeding 30°C (86°F). Some forecast scenarios even suggest temperatures approaching 35°C (95°F), although confidence in those higher values remains limited.
Although the return of heat is notable, it is the potential breakdown of that warm air mass that deserves the closest attention.
Current long-range guidance suggests disturbances approaching from the southwest could interact with the hot, moisture-rich air. If this pattern develops, conditions would become favorable for clusters of thunderstorms capable of producing torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts and locally large hail.
At this stage, it remains too early to determine the timing, coverage or intensity of any severe weather outbreak. High pressure could still suppress storm development or keep the strongest activity away from the Benelux.
Pattern worth monitoring
The exact evolution will become clearer over the coming week, but meteorological signals increasingly point toward a more unstable weather pattern later in July.
Forecast guidance indicates temperatures may remain 3 to 5°C (5 to 9°F) above the seasonal average through much of the third week of July. If Atlantic disturbances are able to break down the hot and humid air mass, another round of impactful thunderstorms could develop across the Netherlands and Belgium.
While there is no certainty that another outbreak of similar magnitude will occur, the atmospheric setup is one that will require close monitoring in the days ahead.
