El Niño has gotten way stronger in just one month. NOAA’s latest assessment, released August 13, suggests it could end up being one of the strongest on record since 1950.
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are running more than 2.0°C above normal. Some spots hit even higher. July’s Niño-3.4 index sat at +1.4°C. Niño-1+2 jumped to +2.9°C, which is wild.
Warmth’s building underwater too. Subsurface anomalies reached +10°C at certain depths. Thermocline’s deeper than it should be.
Ocean warming is pushing the atmosphere around now. Westerly winds have kicked in across the equatorial Pacific. Rainfall and storms ramped up from the central to eastern parts. Indonesia’s seeing suppressed convection.
NOAA calls all this a fully coupled, strengthening El Niño. Signals are lining up.
Climate Prediction Center puts odds above 90% for a very strong El Niño during fall and winter 2026-27 in the Northern Hemisphere.
Even more striking: 69% chance the October-December three-month RONI hits at least +2.5°C. That would beat every El Niño event since 1950.
Stronger El Niño means more global weather impacts. NOAA notes though that specific regional outcomes aren’t locked in. Each region responds differently.
Next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion drops September 1.
We’re seeing another big shift in the Pacific climate pattern. Want to know what causes these changes and why they’re important everywhere? Meteo.Events has already broken down how El Niño and La Niña work, plus how both ENSO phases shape weather across the globe.
