At 18:00 UTC on June 19, the system upgraded into a tropical storm, attaining the name Mekkhala from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Mekkhala entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 22:00 PHT on June 20, and PAGASA assigned it the local name Francisco. JMA upgraded Mekkhala into a severe tropical storm early the following day as it moved through a very favorable environment. Strong radial outflow and well-defined spiral bands of deep convection caused the JTWC to upgrade Mekkhala into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon at 09:00 UTC.
Typhoon Mekkhala strengthened into a very strong typhoon east of the Philippines by noon on June 22, with a central pressure of 940 hPa and maximum sustained winds of 45 m/s (162 km/h / 101 mph). The storm strengthened further during the morning, with its central pressure falling from 955 hPa at 3 a.m. and 975 hPa the previous evening. Its development continued faster than earlier forecasts had indicated, and satellite images on June 22 showed the eye of the typhoon becoming clearly visible, a sign that the system had become more organized and powerful.
The forecast cone widens considerably after the typhoon begins turning northward, leaving uncertainty over whether the storm will pass closer to the Japanese archipelago, move toward the Sea of Japan, or take a more southerly route. Forecast simulations by meteorological agencies in several countries generally show Mekkhala moving north through the East China Sea before turning northeast. However, projected tracks differ sharply from east to west as the storm approaches Japan, making it difficult to determine which regions will face the greatest impact.
Mekkhala is expected to continue moving northwestward at 20–25 km/h (12–16 mph), gradually intensifying to a severe or super typhoon (48–55 m/s, equivalent to Force 15–16), and approaching the eastern waters of Taiwan.
Philippine Area of Responsibility
Mekkhala entered the PAR on June 20, and PAGASA designated it the local name Francisco. As the typhoon intensified over the Philippine Sea, authorities warned of possible flooding in low-lying communities, landslides in mountainous terrain, and dangerous sea conditions across the country’s northernmost provinces.
Typhoon Mekkhala is threatening to become a Super Typhoon as it bears down on Batanes, Philippines. Max winds are at a dangerous 175 km/h, with gusts reaching up to 215 km/h. The system is forecast to curve northward toward Southern Japan by the weekend. pic.twitter.com/QGhMp2d0Yt
— Weather Monitor (@WeatherMonitors) June 22, 2026
By June 24, the powerful typhoon was located approximately 375 kilometers (230 miles) northeast of Aparri, Cagayan, with sustained winds reaching 175 km/h (110 mph). Although the cyclone was not expected to make landfall in the Philippines, its expansive circulation was forecast to bring strong winds, heavy rainfall, and rough seas to the eastern coasts of Cagayan and Batanes. PAGASA raised the first level of its five-step Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal system across portions of northeastern Luzon, while local authorities suspended small-vessel operations and prohibited fishing boats from venturing into affected waters.
Disaster-response and mitigation personnel were placed on heightened alert in vulnerable coastal and upland communities. Forecasters warned that the combination of heavy rainfall and saturated ground conditions could trigger localized flooding and landslides, particularly in areas prone to geological hazards.
Typhoon 07W (#Mekkhala) is expected to make landfall in southern Japan (Okinawa, Kyushu), but the system will weaken significantly by then. Multi-model ensemble tracks. pic.twitter.com/QNQcS5QzCA
— Matthias Sänger (@myweather_ch) June 22, 2026
The typhoon was forecast to make its closest approach to Batanes on June 25, passing roughly 275 kilometers (170 miles) offshore before tracking northward near Taiwan’s eastern coast and continuing toward Japan’s southwestern main island of Kyushu later in the week.
PAGASA continued issuing Tropical Cyclone Bulletins tracking the storm’s progress through Philippine waters. Maximum significant wave heights were estimated at 15.2 meters (50 feet), posing extreme hazards to maritime traffic and coastal communities throughout the region.
The Philippines experiences an average of around 20 tropical cyclones annually and is also frequently affected by earthquakes and volcanic activity, making it one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries.
Japan: Okinawa and Sakishima in the Crosshairs
The latest outlook suggests that Mekkhala’s direct wind and wave impacts will be greatest in the Sakishima Islands around June 25 and in the Okinawa main island region around June 26, while the broader heavy rain threat extends further.
Typhoon Mekkhala approaches Taiwan's eastern waters as nine counties face orange-level heat alerts with temps reaching 37°C. Maritime warnings in effect.
— TVBS World Taiwan (@tvbsworldtaiwan) June 23, 2026
★ https://t.co/bpO8a33b0l ★ pic.twitter.com/NuxsjzHhkA
The Sakishima Islands are likely to face the peak of the typhoon’s direct effects around June 25. Although the storm is expected to weaken slightly by then, it is still forecast to remain strong and could bring violent winds, heavy rain, and high waves to the island chain. Residents in the Sakishima region are being urged to prepare for storm conditions before the weather deteriorates.
Mekkhala may then move closer to the Okinawa main island region around June 26, when maximum sustained winds are forecast at about 30 m/s (108 km/h / 67 mph). The storm is expected to continue weakening, but it could still retain a storm-force wind area as it approaches Okinawa, leaving the main island at risk of strong winds, rough seas, and heavy rain.
3 days of rain expected as Tropical Storm Mekkhla passes through region#weather #typhoon #tropicalstorm #mekkhala #japantravel pic.twitter.com/qCuZzNP6bL
— Formosa News (民視英語新聞) (@FTV_Taiwan_News) June 24, 2026
Forecasters are warning that the storm’s weakening trend should not lead to complacency. Typhoons moving north during the rainy season can trigger heavy rain disasters even when their wind intensity declines, because the moisture they carry can energize stationary fronts over Japan.
Eastern Japan, including the Tokyo and Nagoya areas, is expected to see unsettled weather later in the week, with rain likely from around June 25 and a possible peak in rainfall around June 26. Northern Japan may also experience changeable weather, while Tohoku could see increased rainfall. The exact distribution of rainfall will depend on the position of the front and how much moisture the typhoon sends northward.
A Record-Active Western Pacific Season
The 2026 Pacific typhoon season has been very active, having formed eleven tropical cyclones by mid-June — the most active season by this point since 2008 — and each month has seen at least one named tropical cyclone form, the first such occurrence since 2015.
Mekkhala is expected to rapidly weaken as it tracks farther poleward into a highly unfavorable environment. However, global models continue to be in some disagreement as to the severity and onset time of these degrading environmental factors, with ECMWF being much more aggressive in predicting wind shear and dry air intrusion, whereas the GFS maintains lower wind shear, predicting Mekkhala to maintain typhoon intensity for a longer period as it approaches Japan.-level intensities for longer.
