Extreme heat is rapidly drying out Europe this summer, with new scientific research showing that soaring temperatures have become a major driver of drought alongside declining rainfall. Scientists say the atmosphere is now removing moisture from the landscape at an unprecedented rate, intensifying water shortages, damaging agriculture, reducing hydropower generation and creating favorable conditions for wildfires across large parts of the continent.
According to a new analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) consortium, record-breaking heatwaves have dramatically increased evaporation from rivers, lakes, soils and vegetation. Researchers found that this process has significantly worsened the ongoing drought affecting both western and eastern Europe, even in regions that experienced a relatively wet winter.
Traditionally, drought has been associated with prolonged periods of below-average rainfall. This year, however, scientists say exceptionally high temperatures have become the dominant factor in many areas. Hotter air can hold much more water vapor, increasing what meteorologists refer to as atmospheric evaporative demand, allowing the atmosphere to pull moisture from the land surface much faster than rainfall can replenish it.
The study found that the atmospheric conditions responsible for this summer’s intense evaporation were made approximately 80 times more likely in western Europe and 40 times more likely in eastern Europe because of human-caused climate warming. Soil dryness itself also became significantly more likely under today’s warmer climate, with researchers concluding that the current drought in western Europe has already reached “extreme” classification. Without today’s warmer climate, they estimate the same event would likely have been considered only a moderate drought.
One of the most striking findings is how quickly conditions deteriorated. Researchers say the 2026 drought developed roughly two months earlier than Europe’s severe 2022 drought, despite many regions entering spring with relatively healthy water reserves following a wetter-than-average winter.
The impacts are already widespread. Rivers including the Rhine and the Danube have fallen to unusually low seasonal levels, restricting inland shipping and reducing hydropower production. Agriculture has also suffered, with some of the driest soils on record reported in parts of France, Spain and Romania. Scientists estimate Europe could lose around 9 million tonnes of grain this year, while France faces its poorest maize harvest in five decades and Romanian farmers have already seen more than one million hectares of crops affected by drought.
The combination of abundant spring vegetation followed by intense summer drying has also created ideal conditions for wildfires. Vegetation that grew during the wetter months has rapidly dried under persistent heat, providing additional fuel for fires across southern and western Europe.
Spain’s heatwave reaches its peak
The findings come as Spain experiences its third heatwave of the summer, with temperatures soaring well above 40°C (104°F) across much of the eastern and southern Iberian Peninsula. On Wednesday, Granada-Cartuja reached 44.5°C (112.1°F), while Munera in Albacete climbed to 42.5°C (108.5°F).
Thursday marks the peak of the current heatwave as strengthening westerly winds push even hotter air into Mediterranean regions. Forecasters expect temperatures to exceed 44°C (111.2°F) in parts of southeastern Spain, with the most extreme conditions forecast across Murcia, inland Alicante and Valencia, where red heat warnings remain in effect. Much of eastern Andalusia, Castilla-La Mancha and the Ebro Valley are also expected to exceed 40°C (104°F), while widespread highs above 35 to 38°C (95 to 100.4°F) continue across much of the country’s interior.
The heatwave is expected to ease from Friday as a cooler Atlantic air mass advances from northwestern Spain, bringing progressively lower temperatures through the weekend. However, southeastern Spain may still see temperatures approaching 40°C (104°F) on Friday before conditions gradually moderate. Forecasts also suggest the relief could be short-lived, with hotter weather likely returning next week.
Kazakhstan’s capital shatters heat records
The exceptional heat is not limited to Europe. Across Central Asia, Kazakhstan is enduring one of its hottest summers on record, with Astana, widely regarded as the world’s second-coldest capital city after Ulaanbaatar, setting multiple all-time daily temperature records. On July 14, the city reached 39.5°C (103.1°F), around 4°C (7.2°F) above the previous record for that date, after already setting another daily record of 36.8°C (98.2°F) just weeks earlier.
Elsewhere across the country, temperatures have climbed to 44°C (111.2°F) in southwestern Kazakhstan and between 45°C and 48°C (113°F to 118.4°F) across southern and southeastern regions. Kazakhstan’s national weather service expects widespread highs of 35°C to 45°C (95°F to 113°F) to persist through the end of July, while authorities continue issuing heat alerts and implementing cooling measures in major cities.
Scientists say the prolonged heat is accelerating evaporation, increasing drought stress, wildfire danger and pressure on water resources across Central Asia. Kazakhstan recorded its warmest year on record in 2025, nearly 3°C (5.4°F) above the long-term average, while the World Health Organization has warned that Kazakhstan and neighboring Uzbekistan could experience some of the fastest increases in heat-related mortality in the region unless adaptation measures and heat-health action plans are strengthened.
Researchers warn that unless temperatures moderate significantly during the remainder of summer, evaporation will continue removing moisture faster than many areas can replenish it through rainfall, prolonging drought conditions even if periodic rain events occur. The findings underscore a growing shift in how drought develops across Europe and beyond. While rainfall deficits remain important, increasingly intense and persistent heatwaves are becoming an equally important factor by dramatically increasing atmospheric demand for moisture, accelerating the drying of landscapes and raising the risk of water shortages, agricultural losses and wildfires.
