Typhoon Dolphin is moving west-northwest across the northwestern Pacific, bringing an increasing threat of destructive winds and towering seas to Japan’s remote island chains.
As of 3 p.m. local time on Sunday, August 2, Dolphin was near Minami-Torishima Island at approximately 23.3° north and 152.3° east. The Japan Meteorological Association’s Tenki.jp service reported that the storm was moving west-northwest at 25 km/h (16 mph).
Although Dolphin is compact compared with some major typhoons, dangerous winds extend far beyond its eye.
Alright, this is really freaking cool…
— Dakota Smith (@weatherdak) July 30, 2026
There are mesovortices embedded in Super Typhoon Dolphin's higher level clouds. pic.twitter.com/kLkeSr6eAo
Winds of at least 54 km/h (34 mph) stretched approximately 500 kilometers (311 miles) northeast of the center and 390 kilometers (242 miles) to the southwest. The storm’s violent-wind zone, where speeds exceed 90 km/h (56 mph), extended about 185 kilometers (115 miles) in all directions.
This wide wind field means deteriorating marine conditions could reach islands and shipping routes even if Dolphin’s center remains offshore. Tenki.jp warned of violent winds and heavy rain along the projected path, while seas near the cyclone could become exceptionally rough.
Dolphin is forecast to enter the waters around the Ogasawara Islands on Monday, August 3, and remain near the island chain through Tuesday.
At 3 p.m. Monday, the typhoon is expected to have a central pressure of 945 hectopascals, sustained winds near 162 km/h (101 mph) and gusts around 216 km/h (134 mph).
Similar intensity is forecast for Tuesday, when Dolphin is expected to continue westward through the Ogasawara region at around 20 km/h (12 mph). The islands could experience powerful winds, dangerous surf and long-period swells even where the strongest part of the eyewall does not pass directly overhead.
Dolphin could approach Okinawa by Friday
Gradual weakening is forecast as Dolphin moves west, but the typhoon is expected to remain powerful.
By Wednesday, August 5, the storm should be south of Japan with a central pressure near 950 hectopascals. Sustained winds could remain close to 144 km/h (89 mph), with gusts reaching 216 km/h (134 mph).
The same general intensity is forecast on Thursday as Dolphin moves closer to the Nansei, or Ryukyu, Islands. By Friday afternoon, its center could reach the East China Sea near the Okinawa region, moving west at around 15 km/h (9 mph). Gusts may still reach 198 km/h (123 mph).
Forecast uncertainty grows considerably late in the week. The projected position for Friday has a forecast-circle radius of 220 kilometers (137 miles), while the wider violent-wind warning zone extends roughly 440 kilometers (273 miles) from the predicted center.
The cyclone will not necessarily follow the central line shown on forecast maps, making changes in the track especially important for Okinawa and the surrounding islands.
Dolphin reached Category 5-equivalent strength on July 30, with maximum sustained winds estimated at 270 km/h (165 mph) and a central pressure of around 910 hectopascals.
The storm intensified from a tropical storm into a super typhoon in less than two days. Ocean temperatures of 29°C to 30°C (84°F to 86°F), combined with wind shear of only 5 to 10 knots, allowed its thunderstorms to remain tightly organized around a sharply defined eye.
Dolphin became the fifth tropical cyclone worldwide to reach Category 5 strength during 2026. It was also described as the strongest typhoon on record to develop so close to the International Date Line.
A subtropical ridge is steering Dolphin west-northwest across the Pacific. Later in the week, another high-pressure area near the Sea of Japan is expected to play a greater role in directing the storm toward the Ryukyu Islands and East China Sea.
The immediate threat is focused on the Ogasawara Islands, followed by the waters around Okinawa. Beyond Friday, forecast models continue to differ over whether Dolphin will move toward eastern China, turn closer to the Korean Peninsula or change direction over the East China Sea.
Even with gradual weakening, Dolphin may expand as it matures, spreading damaging winds, high waves and heavy rain across a much broader area than its compact Category 5 core.
